Russia’s illegal and unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine has fundamental consequences for the OSCE. Participating States...
Against a backdrop of unprecedented turmoil – the first major war in Europe in three decades, the highest inflation rates in decades and a rapidly worsening global food crisis – western leaders have met for two major summits.
As the war in Ukraine drags on and Russia’s attempts to gain significant ground in Donbas stall, concerns are being raised once again about the possibility of Belarus opening a second front.
The speed with which this trend of US-China decoupling will continue, and whether it might be reversed, will depend, among other things, on how – and how quickly – the war in Ukraine comes to an end.
Why would Ukraine be persuaded by Russian assurances to respect its neutrality if states like Finland and Sweden, who are not under attack, no longer feel that neutrality guarantees their security?
Whether the OSCE can continue as a platform for dialogue between East and West, however minimal for the time being, ultimately depends on Russia
Weakening the Russian war effort and strengthening Ukraine’s defence capabilities will be critical to minimise Kyiv’s losses – territorial and otherwise – and enhance its bargaining position in future negotiations.
In light of Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine, the next missile launch from Kaliningrad may not be a simulation.
Related Notes The second stage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is underway. The scope of the war now appears to be establishing full control over Donbas and southern Ukraine. If successful, this would mean Russian occupation of approximately one-third of Ukraine,...