Co-authored with Anastasiya Bayok, Rahimullah Kakar, and Niva Yau, this report for the OSCE Network of Think Tanks and Academic Institutions looks at the OSCE’s future options for engagement with its Central Asian participating States.
Central Asia is becoming an increasingly important area for the OSCE: the region has been beset by instability this past year, it is heavily exposed to the effects of climate change, and it is at the centre of major transport, trade, and energy connections. The report, funded by the German Federal Foreign Office, examines the opportunities and challenges that the OSCE faces in developing its engagement with Central Asia in the context of the crisis in Afghanistan and the war in Ukraine.
The report finds that three trends, accelerated by the Russian war in Ukraine, characterise the changing geopolitical dynamics in Central Asia: Russia’s declining influence in the region, China’s reluctance to step decisively into this void, and the slowly but unevenly increasing ability of the Central Asian countries to provide an alternative framework for managing regional stability.
This paper can be found as an open-access publication here and here.