This memorandum provides an overview of options for the formation of the executive branch of the government, taking account of provisions in three relevant outcome documents of the National Dialogue Conference.
Predictions that may take a generation or more for the Middle East to recover from the turmoil that the Arab Spring are clearly a sobering assessment. But they are hardly surprising given that there has been no significant improvement in people’s living conditions, that political tensions and repression persist and that levels of violence are on the up.
As drone technology advances and proliferates ever further, national and international security interests will increasingly come to be seen being served better by drones than by expeditionary campaigns. That said, the temptation for more state (and non-state) actors to use drones and to do so more often, will not necessarily make the world a safer or less violent place.
Within the countries of the Arab Spring, the forces unleashed by the sudden opening of political spaces were largely inexperienced, remain fearful and intolerant of each other, and were easily manipulated in regional and global proxy conflicts.
Managing expectations inside and outside of Yemen about what the National Dialogue can accomplish will enable broadly acceptable outcomes to be achieved by participants in the conference and their subsequent sustainable implementation by all stakeholders.
The international community’s capacity for conflict management remains a potentially highly effective, albeit not flawless, instrument for managing a wide range of security challenges, which, however, will be applied, as it always has, selectively and in line with the national interests of the great powers.
Three ‘ingredients’ are essential in managing processes such as the Arab Spring and their aftermath successfully: leadership, diplomacy, and institutional design.
The National Dialogue in Yemen is an attractive concept to frame many of the difficult challenges that lie ahead of Yemen but there are also some significant challenges related to it.
The post-election national dialogue in Yemen faces a multitude of serious challenges and there is a wide range of potential spoilers inside and outside the country, but it is Yemen’s perhaps only chance at negotiating a transition.