The speed with which this trend of US-China decoupling will continue, and whether it might be reversed, will depend, among other things, on how – and how quickly – the war in Ukraine comes to an end.
Notes
Finland and Sweden’s desire to join Nato shows Putin has permanently redrawn the map of Europe
Why would Ukraine be persuaded by Russian assurances to respect its neutrality if states like Finland and Sweden, who are not under attack, no longer feel that neutrality guarantees their security?
Options for dealing with Russia in the OSCE
Whether the OSCE can continue as a platform for dialogue between East and West, however minimal for the time being, ultimately depends on Russia
Ukraine: Victory Day celebrations can’t mask how badly things are going for Vladimir Putin
Weakening the Russian war effort and strengthening Ukraine’s defence capabilities will be critical to minimise Kyiv’s losses – territorial and otherwise – and enhance its bargaining position in future negotiations.
Kaliningrad: Russia’s ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ deep in Nato territory
In light of Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine, the next missile launch from Kaliningrad may not be a simulation.
Ukraine invasion: ‘stage two’ of Russia’s war is ringing alarm bells in nearby Moldova
Related Notes The second stage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is underway. The scope of the war now appears to be establishing full control over Donbas and southern Ukraine. If successful, this would mean Russian occupation of approximately one-third of Ukraine,...
Ukraine: how Putin could try to split the country into regional puppet governments
Related NotesIn its scale and cost, as well as its broader implications for European and international security, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine constitutes a new low in the foreign policy of Russian president Vladimir Putin. But below the surface, Russia...
How could Russia be prosecuted for alleged war crimes in Ukraine?
As more reports of indiscriminate killing of civilians pour out of Ukraine, international security expert Stefan Wolff says holding Russians accused of war crimes accountable is difficult, but not impossible.
Ukraine peace negotiations: how far are the two sides from a settlement that could stick?
A lot will depend on the extent to which Russia and Ukraine are willing to make concessions on or across the main issue areas and the extent to which they and the presumptive security guarantors are willing and able to deliver on any deal that might ultimately shape up.