The potential for subnational governance to serve as a catalyst of peace has been widely recognized. This is reflected...
International Conflict Management
The Dataset of Political Agreements in Internal Conflicts (PAIC)
This new dataset captures the institutional provisions in political agreements concluded between 1989 and 2016.
Enhancing the Robustness of Causal Claims Based on Case Study Research on Conflict Zones
Focusing on process tracing and using the example of fieldwork in Donbas, I develop an argument in this article...
Squaring the circle: can Ukraine, Crimea and Russia get what they want?
In the current crisis in Ukraine, focusing on confidence-building and an interim solution first and then giving considered thought to a long-term settlement is the only way to avoid the instability and volatility that is a hallmark of so many protracted conflicts.
Putin calling all the shots in Ukraine: what next for relations between Russia and the West?
Neither Russia nor the West can really afford to let bilateral relations deteriorate to such an extent over the crisis in Ukraine that international diplomacy and crisis management become completely impossible for a prolonged period of time.
Crimea flashpoint raises stakes in Russia’s regional power play
Like the West’s, Russia’s Ukraine policy is part of a larger geopolitical game over influence in a strategic region contested by an emerging great power (the EU) and a rival who has been in decline for two decades and unable to reverse this trend to date.
Crimea on the brink: no velvet divorce for polarised peninsula
Given the local, regional and global political dynamics of the Ukrainian crisis, Crimea is unlikely to experience a “velvet divorce”, but could trigger wider violence that Simferopol, Kiev, Moscow, Brussels and Washington should be keen to avoid.
Ukraine a pawn in high-stakes global game with no quick win in sight for EU, US or Russia
Given the depth of these problems, Ukraine’s crisis is certain to continue. Any effort to resolve it in a sustainable way will require a more comprehensive agreement and the breathing space to negotiate it–neither of which will be possible without highly responsible and strategic leadership in Kiev, Moscow, Brussels and Washington.
Twenty Years On and Twenty Years Ahead
While resistance to HCNM involvement is likely to increase in an era in which sovereignty concerns all too often trump concerns over human and minority rights, this does not make the institution of the HCNM itself irrelevant — on the contrary. I argue in this article that there are three areas in which the HCNM has a future role to play: monitoring, preventive quiet diplomacy, and policy transfer.