Ukraine and Russia are strong enough to frustrate each other over territorial gains but not enough to achieve military victory.
Geopolitics in Eastern Europe
Ukraine war: six months on the only way to resume negotiations is to increase cost to Russia
August 24 is Ukraine’s independence day – the day when, in 1990, the Supreme Soviet of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic approved the Act of Declaration of Independence at a special session.
Ukraine war: Nato and the EU can turn Kosovo border crisis into an opportunity to put more pressure on Russia
An old dispute over a decision by the government of Kosovo in September 2021 to enforce the use of Kosovo-issued licence plates for Serbs in the northern municipalities has flared up again and threatens to escalate into conflict between the two countries.
Ukraine peace negotiations: how far are the two sides from a settlement that could stick?
A lot will depend on the extent to which Russia and Ukraine are willing to make concessions on or across the main issue areas and the extent to which they and the presumptive security guarantors are willing and able to deliver on any deal that might ultimately shape up.
Is a neutral Ukraine the only way to stop this war?
Ukraine has no good options if Russia refuses to accept anything less than its own peace terms, and there are challenges to making neutrality a viable option to end the war.
Ukraine: the complex calculations that will decide whether Belarus enters the conflict on Russia’s side
Differentiating between Belarus and Russia and carefully calibrating policies towards both countries should be among the priorities for western policy makers.
Could China be a partner for the West in managing the Ukraine crisis?
For the sake of Ukraine, the opportunity, however slim, to cooperate with China on stopping Russia’s aggression should not be discarded out of hand.
Ukraine: how negotiations could stop the war and what needs to happen first
Creating the conditions for negotiations is not the same as creating the conditions for their success, as eight years of unsuccessful attempts to bring peace to eastern Ukraine sadly testify.
The First Days of War
Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine is difficult to understand and impossible to justify within the bounds of normal rationality.