A key question is how a cornered Russian President Vladimir Putin will react to Ukraine’s recent battlefield successes.
Geopolitics in Eastern Europe
Shutting down Nord Stream 1 pipeline shows Russia is running out of options
Russia has shut the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, a key gas supply to Western Europe, and blamed it on sanctions. But Europe has been preparing for this day, while Russian President Vladimir Putin is running out of options.
Ukraine war: the push to recover Kherson in the south is on – will it succeed?
Announcing the start of Kyiv’s offensive in the southern Kherson region, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Russian soldiers to flee or surrender if they want to survive.
Options for dealing with Russia in the OSCE
Whether the OSCE can continue as a platform for dialogue between East and West, however minimal for the time being, ultimately depends on Russia
Ukraine: Victory Day celebrations can’t mask how badly things are going for Vladimir Putin
Weakening the Russian war effort and strengthening Ukraine’s defence capabilities will be critical to minimise Kyiv’s losses – territorial and otherwise – and enhance its bargaining position in future negotiations.
Kaliningrad: Russia’s ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ deep in Nato territory
In light of Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine, the next missile launch from Kaliningrad may not be a simulation.
Ukraine invasion: ‘stage two’ of Russia’s war is ringing alarm bells in nearby Moldova
Related Notes The second stage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is underway. The scope of the war now appears to be establishing full control over Donbas and southern Ukraine. If successful, this would mean Russian occupation of approximately one-third of Ukraine,...
Ukraine: how Putin could try to split the country into regional puppet governments
Related NotesIn its scale and cost, as well as its broader implications for European and international security, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine constitutes a new low in the foreign policy of Russian president Vladimir Putin. But below the surface, Russia...
How could Russia be prosecuted for alleged war crimes in Ukraine?
As more reports of indiscriminate killing of civilians pour out of Ukraine, international security expert Stefan Wolff says holding Russians accused of war crimes accountable is difficult, but not impossible.