Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg spoke recently of his fear that the war in Ukraine could spin out of control into a full-blown confrontation between Russia and the west.
Geopolitics and Confidence Building in the OSCE Region
Since 2016, I have been working on several papers in the area of geopolitics confidence building in the OSCE region as part of my engagement in the OSCE Network of Think Tanks and Academic Institutions, in which I represent the Institute for Conflict, Cooperation and Security.
Together with my colleague Dr Nino Kemoklidze, I contributed a paper on “Trade as a Confidence Building Measure” to the 2016 OSCE Network Project on “Protracted Conflicts in the OSCE Area: Innovative Approaches for Co-operation in the Conflict Zones“. A revised and updated version of this paper was subsequently published as freely accessible article in Eurasian Geography and Economics.
In 2017, I directed a follow-on project on “Confidence Building Measures in the OSCE Economic and Environmental Dimension“. This involved two workshops: a brainstorming workshop at the University of Birmingham in July 2017 and a further drafting workshop at the OSCE in October 2017 at which initial findings were presented to officials from the OSCE Secretariat and the Austrian Chairmanship. Both workshops contributed to the final project report presented at the December 2017 meeting of the Economic and Environmental Committee of the OSCE in Vienna.
Building on the work done in 2016 and 2017, I wrote a report on “Economic Diplomacy and Connectivity: What Role for the OSCE?” which I presented to an audience of senior OSCE officials and diplomats at the 25th OSCE Ministerial Council in Milan in December 2018.
In addition, I have been working with my colleague Dr Nadja Douglas from the Centre for East European and International Studies in Berlin on a paper that examines confidence and security building measures in the context of the conflict in the Transdniestrian region of the Republic of Moldova. A work-in-progress draft of this paper can be downloaded here.
Most recently, I completed a report on China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Implications for the OSCE, which is part of a broader project that examines the challenges and opportunities that arise from the growing presence and activities of China for the Organisation and its participating States.
Ukraine war: China’s lukewarm support for Russia is likely to benefit Kyiv – here’s why
Things are not going well for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.
Ukraine war: west condemns ‘sham’ referendums in Russian-occupied areas
Polls have closed in four Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine after four days of voting in referendums on their future status. Predictably, the results showed “overwhelming support” for joining Russia.
Ukraine war: Putin calls up more troops and threatens nuclear option in a speech which ups the ante but shows Russia’s weakness
Declaring a partial mobilisation and threatening the use of “lots of Russian weapons” in response to alleged western nuclear blackmail, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin has upped the ante once more in his war against Ukraine.
Ukraine war: Putin’s failure will pave the way for China’s rise to pre-eminence in Eurasia
What had been suspected for some time has now come out into the open: China has “concerns” about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
What are the prospects for peace, six months after Russia invaded Ukraine?
Ukraine and Russia are strong enough to frustrate each other over territorial gains but not enough to achieve military victory.
Ukraine war: six months on the only way to resume negotiations is to increase cost to Russia
August 24 is Ukraine’s independence day – the day when, in 1990, the Supreme Soviet of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic approved the Act of Declaration of Independence at a special session.
Ukraine war: Nato and the EU can turn Kosovo border crisis into an opportunity to put more pressure on Russia
An old dispute over a decision by the government of Kosovo in September 2021 to enforce the use of Kosovo-issued licence plates for Serbs in the northern municipalities has flared up again and threatens to escalate into conflict between the two countries.
Ukraine war: why Moscow could go nuclear over Kyiv’s ‘threats’ to Crimea
As the war in Ukraine is about to head into its sixth month, the ferocity with which it is fought shows no signs of abating – neither on the battlefield, nor in the rhetoric emerging from Moscow and Kyiv.
‘Weaponising’ food amid Ukraine war might be Putin’s real trump card
Russia’s blockade of Black Sea ports is driving up food inflation and exacerbating the global hunger problem that may drive more migrants to Europe.
Ukraine war: Russia’s G20 walkout heightens tensions at fractious summit as China’s rise continues
While G20 foreign ministers were meeting in Bali, Indonesia, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, threatened further escalation in his war against Ukraine, announcing to the world that “by and large, we have not started anything in earnest yet”.