Creating the conditions for negotiations is not the same as creating the conditions for their success, as eight years of unsuccessful attempts to bring peace to eastern Ukraine sadly testify.
![Ukraine: how negotiations could stop the war and what needs to happen first](https://stefanwolff.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/the_converation_logo-e1637940174562.png)
Creating the conditions for negotiations is not the same as creating the conditions for their success, as eight years of unsuccessful attempts to bring peace to eastern Ukraine sadly testify.
Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine is difficult to understand and impossible to justify within the bounds of normal rationality.
Muddying the diplomatic waters further with an unpalatable, and in all likelihood unattainable, “solution” wastes precious time and resources that now would be better devoted to achieving a stable ceasefire and an end to Russia’s aggression.
Since the conclusion of the Minsk II agreement in February 2015, the situation in eastern Ukraine has evolved into a seemingly permanent yet highly volatile state of “no peace, no war.”
Many remember Russia’s Cold War strategy of invading, destabilizing and intervening in other countries’ governance. Putin has apparently once again made this his policy.
Since protests, separatism and foreign intervention began to break Ukraine apart in 2014, it has been struggling to stay in control of its future. And the struggle is far from over. No fewer than four peace agreements have been struck: the two Minsk agreements, the so-called Kyiv Agreement, and the Geneva Declaration.
While the rest of the world is preoccupied with terrorist attacks in Tunisia and Kuwait, the political crisis in Ukraine appears to be heading towards all-out war again. And with EU leaders currently occupied with Greece, Ukraine and Russia may well be heading into another bout of armed conflict.
Just as the latest peace deal to stabilise Ukraine was being put into place, a bomb exploded in the city of Kharkiv, killing two people and injuring at least ten, while another was found and defused in Odessa.
After all night talks in the Belarusian capital Minsk, the outcomes of the four party talks in the so-called Normandy format have neither brought a major breakthrough or a complete disaster. As a deal, it is not a solution, but perhaps a step towards one.