Ukraine can find advantage in geopolitical competition while reducing its sense of disempowerment.
![Pawns, Partners, and “Smart Leadership”: Ukraine’s Opportunities in the China-Russia-West Triangle](https://stefanwolff.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Ponars_Logo_Color-e1637936165531.png)
Ukraine can find advantage in geopolitical competition while reducing its sense of disempowerment.
China has become a significant actor in the OSCE area at a time of deep divisions among participating States.
Since its inception in late 2013, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has grown into a vast global development project...
All hope is not lost for Ukraine quite yet, but the window of opportunity for local crisis management is rapidly closing.
The West should send a much clearer message to Moscow and back it up with credible policy. The question, however, is whether policy makers from Berlin to Brussels, London and Washington think that Moldova is worth such a tougher line.
More constructive dialogue between Russia and the West would possibly enable a face-saving way out of the current deadlock. This would serve both sides in the new great game over influence in Eastern Europe, but Russia would be the clear winner, and Ukraine the first victim of this new geopolitics.
A foreign policy “success” like the one Putin has just had with Crimea, may well embolden further Russian moves; the only hope is that the West will be better prepared for a possible next round of conflict with the Kremlin.
Crimeans have voted by a huge margin to secede from Ukraine. According to early reports released after 50% of the ballots had been counted, more than 95% of votes were in favour of joining Russia.
In the current crisis in Ukraine, focusing on confidence-building and an interim solution first and then giving considered thought to a long-term settlement is the only way to avoid the instability and volatility that is a hallmark of so many protracted conflicts.