The current escalation between Russia and Ukraine is the latest chapter in a saga of deteriorating relations dating back almost two decades.
![The Russian Threat against Ukraine: A Long History and an Uncertain Future](https://stefanwolff.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/KennanInstitute-e1643795523548.jpg)
The current escalation between Russia and Ukraine is the latest chapter in a saga of deteriorating relations dating back almost two decades.
Ukraine’s domestic resilience is as important a contribution to European and global security in the long term as the immediate imperative of deterring Russian aggression.
Engagement with China must not lead to a further weakening of the OSCE human dimension, which is already under a lot of pressure.
As the situation in eastern Ukraine stabilises and the country hopefully muddles through the winter, Western attention will soon enough turn to other crises around the world where co-operation with Russia is essential. That much we have seen before: who, after all, remembers Crimea?
With the battle lines drawn locally and internationally, neither a political nor a military solution to Ukraine’s crisis are likely anytime soon.
A blend of Soviet-style egalitarianism mixed with cultural mythology and the geographic historical precedent of Novorossiya may appeal to those who voted yes in the May referendum and it is also an attractive geopolitical concept from Moscow’s perspective.
Every additional weapon that crosses from Russia into Ukraine; every rebel, soldier and civilian killed; and every new sanction imposed take us one step further away from establishing trust.
The debate and vote in the Security Council n the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over rebel-controlled territory in eastern Ukraine have the feel of yet another first step in the right direction. However, it is sadly not clear that any meaningful second steps will follow.
With the outright victory of Petro Poroshenko in Ukraine’s presidential elections on May 25 now confirmed, hopes are running high for a new beginning that will deliver a swift way out of a protracted crisis.