Given the local, regional and global political dynamics of the Ukrainian crisis, Crimea is unlikely to experience a “velvet divorce”, but could trigger wider violence that Simferopol, Kiev, Moscow, Brussels and Washington should be keen to avoid.
International Conflict Management
Ukraine a pawn in high-stakes global game with no quick win in sight for EU, US or Russia
Given the depth of these problems, Ukraine’s crisis is certain to continue. Any effort to resolve it in a sustainable way will require a more comprehensive agreement and the breathing space to negotiate it–neither of which will be possible without highly responsible and strategic leadership in Kiev, Moscow, Brussels and Washington.
Twenty Years On and Twenty Years Ahead
While resistance to HCNM involvement is likely to increase in an era in which sovereignty concerns all too often trump concerns over human and minority rights, this does not make the institution of the HCNM itself irrelevant — on the contrary. I argue in this article that there are three areas in which the HCNM has a future role to play: monitoring, preventive quiet diplomacy, and policy transfer.
Ethnic Conflict: Causes, Consequences, and Responses
Why does ethnic conflict remain one of the major security challenges in today's world? Can we avoid another Rwanda in the future? How was it possible, after almost four decades, to achieve a lasting settlement to the conflict in Northern Ireland, while that in Kashmir...
Conflict Resolution in the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood
This paper was commissioned by the European Policy Centre and co-authored with Amanda Akcakoca, Thomas Vanhauwaert, and Richard G. Whitman. It analyses the impact of the war between Russia and Georgia on the EU's ability to manage conflicts in the wider eastern...
The European Union and the Conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh Territory
This report, prepared for the Committee on the Honouring of Obligations and Commitments by Member States of the Council of Europe (the so-called Monitoring Committee) of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, examines the role of the European Union in...
Overcoming Political Deadlock in Gagauzia
This report, prepared for the then-EU Special Representative for Moldova, offers some observations on how the political deadlock in Gagauzia following elections to the entity's assembly could be overcome. The report is part of my long-term project on Conflict...
Structure and Agency in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Settlement Process
This report (in German) was prepared for a meeting with representatives of the Nagorno-Karabakh territory at the European Academy in Berlin. It analyses the dynamic relationship between and among the main structures and actors in the conflict and the various attempts...
Institutions for the Management of Ethnopolitical Conflict in Central and Eastern Europe
Once considered an exclusively internal affair, international organisations have, over the last few decades, become increasingly involved in the management of ethnopolitical conflicts and have been active in attempts to prevent and/or resolve them. Co-edited with Marc...