A lot will depend on the extent to which Russia and Ukraine are willing to make concessions on or across the main issue areas and the extent to which they and the presumptive security guarantors are willing and able to deliver on any deal that might ultimately shape up.
Ukraine has no good options if Russia refuses to accept anything less than its own peace terms, and there are challenges to making neutrality a viable option to end the war.
Differentiating between Belarus and Russia and carefully calibrating policies towards both countries should be among the priorities for western policy makers.
With the battle lines drawn locally and internationally, neither a political nor a military solution to Ukraine’s crisis are likely anytime soon.
A blend of Soviet-style egalitarianism mixed with cultural mythology and the geographic historical precedent of Novorossiya may appeal to those who voted yes in the May referendum and it is also an attractive geopolitical concept from Moscow’s perspective.
Every additional weapon that crosses from Russia into Ukraine; every rebel, soldier and civilian killed; and every new sanction imposed take us one step further away from establishing trust.
The debate and vote in the Security Council n the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over rebel-controlled territory in eastern Ukraine have the feel of yet another first step in the right direction. However, it is sadly not clear that any meaningful second steps will follow.
With the outright victory of Petro Poroshenko in Ukraine’s presidential elections on May 25 now confirmed, hopes are running high for a new beginning that will deliver a swift way out of a protracted crisis.
The presidential elections in Ukraine on May 25 were meant to offer the country the beginning of a way out of a protracted crisis.