Related Notes The second stage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is underway. The scope of the war now appears to be...
Geopolitics in Eastern Europe
Ukraine: how Putin could try to split the country into regional puppet governments
Related NotesIn its scale and cost, as well as its broader implications for European and international security,...
How could Russia be prosecuted for alleged war crimes in Ukraine?
As more reports of indiscriminate killing of civilians pour out of Ukraine, international security expert Stefan Wolff says holding Russians accused of war crimes accountable is difficult, but not impossible.
Ukraine steels for more unrest as Donetsk bus attack kills 12
The deadly attack on a bus carrying civilians near Donetsk, killing at least 12 of them and wounding many more, comes in the wake of yet another round of failed talks among the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France. It also follows a pattern of persistent violence between rebels and government forces that has made a mockery of a ceasefire agreement brokered between the two sides back in September 2014.
Moldova’s future in the balance
Even in the best-possible scenario, Moldova has a long way to go before it sheds its reputation as one of the most corrupt and poorest countries in Europe. It will be up to the country’s political elites, as well as their respective external patrons, to decide whether these elections are the first step in this direction.
Post-Soviet Confidence Games
Confidence-building measures can help to stabilize a conflict, but the stability they generate is often fragile and temporary. In an environment like that in Ukraine, there is a risk that such measures will sustain, not end, the conflict.
The start of a new Cold War that Russia can’t win
Twenty-five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall that ushered in the end of communism in eastern Europe and the break-up of the Soviet Union, all the signs point to a new Cold War between Russia and the West.
Ukrainian elections expose deep divisions
Ukrainians have voted for a new parliament. The exit polls, in line with earlier predictions, indicate that the Petro Poroshenko Bloc – which also includes the UDAR party of Kiev’s mayor, former boxing champion Vitali Klichko – came out on top (predicted to achieve around 23% of the vote), but will need partners to form a stable coalition that will give Poroshenko a majority in parliament.
Putin forges ahead with Novorossiya
As the situation in eastern Ukraine stabilises and the country hopefully muddles through the winter, Western attention will soon enough turn to other crises around the world where co-operation with Russia is essential. That much we have seen before: who, after all, remembers Crimea?