Many remember Russia’s Cold War strategy of invading, destabilizing and intervening in other countries’ governance. Putin has apparently once again made this his policy.
Confidence Building
Ukraine still on the edge, despite all efforts to stabilise it
Since protests, separatism and foreign intervention began to break Ukraine apart in 2014, it has been struggling to stay in control of its future. And the struggle is far from over. No fewer than four peace agreements have been struck: the two Minsk agreements, the so-called Kyiv Agreement, and the Geneva Declaration.
Linkage and leverage effects on Moldova’s Transnistria problem
Co-authored with John Beyer and published in East European Politics, this article asks what the impact is of...
Crimea votes to secede from Ukraine as EU considers sanctions against Russia
Crimeans have voted by a huge margin to secede from Ukraine. According to early reports released after 50% of the ballots had been counted, more than 95% of votes were in favour of joining Russia.
Squaring the circle: can Ukraine, Crimea and Russia get what they want?
In the current crisis in Ukraine, focusing on confidence-building and an interim solution first and then giving considered thought to a long-term settlement is the only way to avoid the instability and volatility that is a hallmark of so many protracted conflicts.
Putin calling all the shots in Ukraine: what next for relations between Russia and the West?
Neither Russia nor the West can really afford to let bilateral relations deteriorate to such an extent over the crisis in Ukraine that international diplomacy and crisis management become completely impossible for a prolonged period of time.
Crimea flashpoint raises stakes in Russia’s regional power play
Like the West’s, Russia’s Ukraine policy is part of a larger geopolitical game over influence in a strategic region contested by an emerging great power (the EU) and a rival who has been in decline for two decades and unable to reverse this trend to date.
Crimea on the brink: no velvet divorce for polarised peninsula
Given the local, regional and global political dynamics of the Ukrainian crisis, Crimea is unlikely to experience a “velvet divorce”, but could trigger wider violence that Simferopol, Kiev, Moscow, Brussels and Washington should be keen to avoid.
Ukraine a pawn in high-stakes global game with no quick win in sight for EU, US or Russia
Given the depth of these problems, Ukraine’s crisis is certain to continue. Any effort to resolve it in a sustainable way will require a more comprehensive agreement and the breathing space to negotiate it–neither of which will be possible without highly responsible and strategic leadership in Kiev, Moscow, Brussels and Washington.