In this paper for the Global Centre for Pluralism (GCP) I assess whether scenario planning can serve as an approach through which the GCP can establish itself as a credible and effective player in the early warning field by applying its pluralism lens as the focus of early warning. I demonstrate that there is sufficient evidence that scenarios can offer a useful, context-sensitive and systematic approach to early warning that is applicable to GCP’s focus on pluralism.

This paper can be found as an open-access publication here and here.