Whether the OSCE can continue as a platform for dialogue between East and West, however minimal for the time being, ultimately depends on Russia
Ukraine
Ukraine: Victory Day celebrations can’t mask how badly things are going for Vladimir Putin
Weakening the Russian war effort and strengthening Ukraine’s defence capabilities will be critical to minimise Kyiv’s losses – territorial and otherwise – and enhance its bargaining position in future negotiations.
Kaliningrad: Russia’s ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ deep in Nato territory
In light of Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine, the next missile launch from Kaliningrad may not be a simulation.
Ukraine sliding towards all-out war despite mediation efforts
For the time being, the discussions in the Ukraine Contact Group are the only mechanism that can potentially avert all-out war. But unless there is some credible follow-through by the opponents on the ground to the latest “agreementâ€, the window of opportunity that these ongoing discussions create may be closing fast – and with dire consequences.
Ukraine steels for more unrest as Donetsk bus attack kills 12
The deadly attack on a bus carrying civilians near Donetsk, killing at least 12 of them and wounding many more, comes in the wake of yet another round of failed talks among the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France. It also follows a pattern of persistent violence between rebels and government forces that has made a mockery of a ceasefire agreement brokered between the two sides back in September 2014.
Post-Soviet Confidence Games
Confidence-building measures can help to stabilize a conflict, but the stability they generate is often fragile and temporary. In an environment like that in Ukraine, there is a risk that such measures will sustain, not end, the conflict.
The start of a new Cold War that Russia can’t win
Twenty-five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall that ushered in the end of communism in eastern Europe and the break-up of the Soviet Union, all the signs point to a new Cold War between Russia and the West.
Ukrainian elections expose deep divisions
Ukrainians have voted for a new parliament. The exit polls, in line with earlier predictions, indicate that the Petro Poroshenko Bloc – which also includes the UDAR party of Kiev’s mayor, former boxing champion Vitali Klichko – came out on top (predicted to achieve around 23% of the vote), but will need partners to form a stable coalition that will give Poroshenko a majority in parliament.
Putin forges ahead with Novorossiya
As the situation in eastern Ukraine stabilises and the country hopefully muddles through the winter, Western attention will soon enough turn to other crises around the world where co-operation with Russia is essential. That much we have seen before: who, after all, remembers Crimea?