Any agreement that consolidates Russian control over the already occupied territories while pressure points are still changing is a worst-case scenario for Kyiv and its Western allies.
Notes
Ukraine war: rising food prices are not the only global economic fallout
The speed with which this trend of US-China decoupling will continue, and whether it might be reversed, will depend, among other things, on how – and how quickly – the war in Ukraine comes to an end.
Finland and Sweden’s desire to join Nato shows Putin has permanently redrawn the map of Europe
Why would Ukraine be persuaded by Russian assurances to respect its neutrality if states like Finland and Sweden, who are not under attack, no longer feel that neutrality guarantees their security?
Yemen: Engaging, Not Isolating
To resolve the conflict, the Biden administration will have to grasp the nettle of subnational governance reform and be prepared to work with the Houthis.
The prospects for a settlement on Transnistria under a Sandu presidency
Within days of Maia Sandu’s victory, the protracted conflict over Transnistria has moved to the centre stage again.
Libya: Subnational Governance as an Anchor of Stability
As the Libyan people see renewed prospects for peace, subnational governance may represent an integral part of a resolution to protracted instability.
A New Dynamic for Post-Soviet Conflict Settlement?
The protracted conflicts across the post-Soviet space have returned to the center of regional and international politics over the past several months.
What next for Moldova?
Will Maia Sandu’s victory matter for one of Europe’s poorest country, which has been torn between Russia and the West for the better part of the past three decades?
Subnational governance is key to peace
Resolving subnational conflicts is ultimately about governance because their drivers are frequently linked to grievances and perceived injustice associated with access to power and resources, and to feelings of ethnic, social and / or geographic exclusion and marginalization.