Guarantee Options for a Settlement of the Conflict over Transnistria

Any meaningful consideration of guarantee options requires some assumptions about the nature of the underlying settlement. With this in mind, the following discussion draws on comparative experience in two ways. First, it considers the nature of the conflict over Transnistria in a broader context of similar conflicts elsewhere in order to establish the likely dimensions of a settlement. Second, it analyses a range of previous settlement proposals to identify any consensus in these dimensions in order to determine the possible parameters of a settlement in somewhat greater detail.

While not detached from the reality of the conflict over Transnistria, this discussion is in equal measure speculative and hypothetical. It is not meant to commit either side in the conflict or any other party to anything, but to illustrate how different settlement options might be appropriately guaranteed. As a document informing negotiators and mediators, the following should be read in conjunction with the more general examination in the companion paper “Guarantees in Conflict Settlements”.

My gratitude to Keith Shannon, John Mitchell, and Iulia Kirnitki (including for an excellent translation into Russian) for facilitating my work on this project.