Notebook
Moscow holds aces as bombing rattles shaky Ukraine ceasefire
Just as the latest peace deal to stabilise Ukraine was being put into place, a bomb exploded in the city of Kharkiv, killing two people and injuring at least ten, while another was found and defused in Odessa.
read moreUkraine ceasefire announced at Minsk summit – what next?
After all night talks in the Belarusian capital Minsk, the outcomes of the four party talks in the so-called Normandy format have neither brought a major breakthrough or a complete disaster. As a deal, it is not a solution, but perhaps a step towards one.
read moreUkraine sliding towards all-out war despite mediation efforts
For the time being, the discussions in the Ukraine Contact Group are the only mechanism that can potentially avert all-out war. But unless there is some credible follow-through by the opponents on the ground to the latest “agreementâ€, the window of opportunity that these ongoing discussions create may be closing fast – and with dire consequences.
read moreAl-Qaeda’s Yemen branch adds Paris attacks to list of successes
AQAP’s alleged involvement in the Paris attacks not only highlights the continuing threat from al-Qaeda in general, which must not be underestimated; it also underscores the similarities and differences between al-Qaeda and Islamic State.
read moreUkraine steels for more unrest as Donetsk bus attack kills 12
The deadly attack on a bus carrying civilians near Donetsk, killing at least 12 of them and wounding many more, comes in the wake of yet another round of failed talks among the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France. It also follows a pattern of persistent violence between rebels and government forces that has made a mockery of a ceasefire agreement brokered between the two sides back in September 2014.
read moreMoldova’s future in the balance
Even in the best-possible scenario, Moldova has a long way to go before it sheds its reputation as one of the most corrupt and poorest countries in Europe. It will be up to the country’s political elites, as well as their respective external patrons, to decide whether these elections are the first step in this direction.
read morePost-Soviet Confidence Games
Confidence-building measures can help to stabilize a conflict, but the stability they generate is often fragile and temporary. In an environment like that in Ukraine, there is a risk that such measures will sustain, not end, the conflict.
read moreThe start of a new Cold War that Russia can’t win
Twenty-five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall that ushered in the end of communism in eastern Europe and the break-up of the Soviet Union, all the signs point to a new Cold War between Russia and the West.
read moreUkrainian elections expose deep divisions
Ukrainians have voted for a new parliament. The exit polls, in line with earlier predictions, indicate that the Petro Poroshenko Bloc – which also includes the UDAR party of Kiev’s mayor, former boxing champion Vitali Klichko – came out on top (predicted to achieve around 23% of the vote), but will need partners to form a stable coalition that will give Poroshenko a majority in parliament.
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