Notebook
Pawns, Partners, and “Smart Leadership”: Ukraine’s Opportunities in the China-Russia-West Triangle
Ukraine can find advantage in geopolitical competition while reducing its sense of disempowerment. The increasingly three-sided competition for influence between China, Russia, and the West has arguably created a new space for autonomous decisionmaking when it comes to strategic geoeconomic choices in Kyiv’s foreign policy.
read moreChina: A Challenge or an Opportunity for the OSCE?
China has become a significant actor in the OSCE area at a time of deep divisions among participating States. As China, Russia, and the West now represent three rival great powers competing for influence in Eurasia, participating States’ narratives on China are polarised, driven, in part, by fundamentally different underpinning value systems. However, regardless of whether the ever-increasing Chinese presence are considered a challenge or an opportunity for the OSCE, the Organization needs to face China, not ignore it.
read moreLibya: Amid Hope for Peace, Regional Rifts Still Pose Hurdles
2021 is meant to be Libya’s transitional year. The new interim government faces huge tasks.
read moreBuilding peace through subnational governance: The case of Libya
Amidst the pandemic and an unprecedented economic downturn, millions of people continue to face the compounding effects of violent conflict. Disputes over control of territory and resources play an oversized role in many of these conflicts — as evident, for example, in Ethiopia, Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Myanmar.
read moreYemen: Engaging, Not Isolating
Five years of war in Yemen have caused one of today’s worst man-made humanitarian crises. To resolve the conflict the Biden administration will have to grasp the nettle of subnational governance reform and be prepared to work with – not against – the Houthis in finding a sustainable political settlement.
read moreThe prospects for a settlement on Transnistria under a Sandu presidency
Moldova’s president-elect, Maia Sandu, campaigned and won on an anti-corruption platform with few, if any, references to geopolitics. Yet, within days of her victory, one of the longest-standing and thorniest geopolitical issues that the country will continue to face... read moreLibya: Subnational Governance as an Anchor of Stability
As the Libyan people see renewed prospects for peace, subnational governance may represent an integral part of a resolution to protracted instability. For such a solution to work, it will require broad participation in the negotiation process, the absence of internal and external spoilers, and that the institutional arrangements agreed upon must address the main drivers of conflict effectively.
read moreA New Dynamic for Post-Soviet Conflict Settlement?
The protracted conflicts across the post-Soviet space have returned to the center of regional and international politics over the past several months. First, it was the military escalation between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, then the prospect of a new push to settle the conflict over Transnistria.
read moreWhat next for Moldova?
Maia Sandu’s victory in the second round of Moldova’s presidential elections has been widely celebrated in Western media. But will it matter for one of Europe’s poorest country which has been torn between Russia and the West for the better part of the past three decades.
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